Clemson-Georgia Under 24.5 first half total
-115 at BetMGM
One of the biggest games of Week 1 takes place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta where No. 1 ranked Georgia will face off against No. 14 Clemson.
Georgia enters this season probably a little ticked off with the way last season ended with the Dawgs’ lone loss coming in the SEC Championship game by just three points to Alabama. That’s all it took to cost Georgia a spot in the College Football Playoff.
But this is a team with as many national championships as losses over the last three seasons, quarterback Carson Beck returns, and there are got handfuls of NFL players in every unit.
The defense ONLY had four NFL draft picks last season, which means seven starters are back and this is a group that could arguably improve on a defense that allowed the seventh-fewest points (16.8) and ranked 10th in opponent yards per play.
If anyone knows how good this Georgia defense can be it’s Dabo Swinney. This is a big year for Clemson after missing the ACC title game. For the Tigers to not only get back to the ACC title game but also put themselves back on the map as a national title contender, it means Dabo has to put QB Cade Klubnik in the best position to succeed.
That is easier said than done against a team like Georgia, but Clemson has a strong offensive line, and thundering back Phil Mafah returns. To stay in a game against the Dawgs, you have to match their physicality and limit your mistakes. I think this group is capable of that.
On top of that, Dabo is still recruiting elite defenders, and this could be a very strong group, particularly at the back end.
Meanwhile, Beck will also be down his top two pass catchers from a season ago, Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey. It also sounds like transfer running back Trevor Etienne is banged up and may not play in this.
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Indiana Team Total Over 37.5
-108 at FanDuel
Indiana to go Over 5.5 wins this season made my regular season win total best bets article this season and that Over starts this week against Florida International.
I’m high on Indiana this season for a few reasons but it all starts with new head coach Curt Cignetti. Cignetti spent the last several seasons at the helm of James Madison, including the last two when the Dukes made the transition to the FBS and JMU passed that test with flying colors.
The Dukes went 19-5 in Cignetti’s final two seasons, including 11-2 last year thanks to an elite defense and a strong passing game led by Jordan McCloud.
Cignetti will now ply his trade in Indiana and inherit a team that already returns a whopping 21 starters. But that didn’t stop him from hitting up the transfer portal as well, which included him bringing over several of his former players from JMU.
One thing he did do that was different was upgrade his quarterback. That is saying something considering the way McCloud played last season. But in comes former Ohio and All-MAC QB Kurtis Rourke.
The former Ohio QB threw for nearly 7,600 yards and 50 touchdowns during his Bobcats career. For my money, Rourke is a better passer than McCloud.
Rourke will also be throwing to a sneaky-good wide receiver group, which includes Donaven McCulley and JMU transfer Elijah Sarratt, who totaled nearly 1,200 receiving yards last season.
The Cignetti era at Indiana gets underway this Saturday against FIU. The Panthers actually look like an up-and-coming C-USA team this season, but they are going to be overmatched in this matchup. FIU returns just six starters on defense where the biggest weakness is the secondary.
The Panther ranked 100th in the country in opponents yards per pass attempt. They also struggled to pressure the quarterback, ranking 125th in sack rate. That means Rourke should cook in this one. I’m betting the Hoosiers to go Over their team total in this one which is sitting at 37.5. That’s a number FIU allowed opponents to eclipse six times in their last 10 games.
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LSU -4
-112 at DraftKings
Let’s close the first Triple Option of the season with a Sunday night showdown at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas where the LSU Tigers will battle the USC Trojans in a massive Week 1 matchup.
LSU is coming off a 10-win season thanks in large part to Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels and a pair of now NFL wide receivers in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.
Meanwhile, USC also says goodbye to its Heisman-winning QB Caleb Williams, meaning Brian Kelly’s and Lincoln Riley’s programs have undergone some big changes this offseason. So, the question is who did a better job handling those changes?
For LSU, Daniels' departure means the Garrett Nussmeier era is underway. Some people may forget, but before Daniel’s terrific season, some were wondering if the highly touted Nussmeier would win the starting job. Nussmeier impressed in his bowl game and, by all accounts, is looking great heading into this season.
Countering Nussmeier is Miller Moss. While Moss was a solid four-star prospect, he might not be on the same level as some of Riley’s former proteges, like Williams, Kyler Murray, or Baker Mayfield.
I currently have more faith in Nussmeier’s ability to be effective in this matchup, and one reason for that is that I think he’ll have more time to work. He should be playing behind one of the top offensive lines in the country, led by star left tackle Will Campbell.
While USC’s offensive line ranked 80th in sack rate allowed, is down three starters and will now have to deal with one of the best defenders around in Harold Perkins.
And finally, I think LSU has an edge when it comes to in-game coaching. If you want a guy to build up your QB and have him put up some big numbers, Riley is your guy. But I’m not sure how he stacks out as an in-game coach. I’d prefer to have Brian Kelly in this spot.
All things considered, I have this game lined at closer to a touchdown, so I’ll happily lay the 4-points with the Bayou Bengals in this spot.
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